Bills at Texans Odds point spread game pick TV channel preview and more for AFC

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The opening game of wild card weekend sees the travel to Houston to take on the . The AFC South champions should hopefully be welcoming back two major contributors in J.J. Watt and , while the No. 5 seeded Bills bring their stingy defense down to NRG Stadium in hopes of slowing down an explosive Texans attack.The winner of this contest won't know who they're playing in the divisional round until the conclusion of the nightcap, but each team is capable of putting a Lamar Stevens Jersey  scare into either the or , albeit for different reasons. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, though. We still have to decide a winner in Round 1.Before we break things down, let's recap how you can follow all the action this weekend.How to watchDate:Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 |Time: 4:35 p.mLocation:NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)TV:ESPN|Follow:Odds:Texans -2.5, O/U 43.5 (heading into Friday), Get into the playoff action by playing CBS Sports Playoff Pick'em. Pick the games for your free chance to win $5,000 or start a fully customizable pool with friends. Terms Apply.When the Bills have the ballThe Bills are a defense-first team, but that doesn't mean their offense isn't at all dangerous. It's a below-average unit (24th in yards per play, 25th in points per drive. 22nd in DVOA), sure, but they do have playmakers. In , they have an athletic quarterback who can make any throw on the field and create plays out of nothing with his legs. In , they have a versatile back who can do damage on the ground and through the air. In and , they have a speed threat and a po se sion receiver who can each get open against just about anybody.The key to the Buffalo offense is not being put in situations where they need to create explosive plays and high-scoring games. The Bills scored 30 or more points only twice this season -- in each of their games against the . They reached 20 points only five more times, which means they scored le s than 20 in nine of their 16 games -- including each of their last four, as they limped their way into the playoffs with a 1-3 finish to the season.So who wins Bills vs. Texans? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations?now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over on Saturday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.If they can grind things down and win a low-scoring game, that's where the Bills want to live. That means a heavy dose of Singletary and . It means Allen throwing to his first read more often than not, and if that player isn't open, tucking it and trying to gain a few yards to keep the clock moving and prevent the offense from being stuck in second- or third-and-long situations, where the Bills were among the worst offenses in the league. (Per Football Larry Nance Jersey  Outsiders, Buffalo ranked 30th in DVOA on second-and-long and 22nd on third-and-long.)Following an early-season disaster against the , Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll placed an extreme priority on Allen's not turning the ball over; and to his credit, after throwing six interceptions and losing two fumbles in Buffalo's first five games of the season, Allen threw just three picks and lost only two fumbles during the team's final 11 games. As a result, the Bills had the NFL's 10th-lowest percentage of their drives end in a turnover, helping keep afloat an attack that doesn't do all that much at an above-average level.The Houston defense Buffalo will be tasked with beating this weekend was one of the NFL's worst during the regular season. Despite its opponents having the third-worst starting field position in the league despite their being a top-10 turnover-creating unit, the Texans still managed to rank only 24th in points allowed per drive and 21st in the percentage of opponent drives that ended in a score. That's because they ranked 31st in yards per play and 31st in yards per drive. They were dreadful on third downs (31st in opponent's conversion rate on third downs and 32nd in DVOA), meaning they couldn't get off the field and repeatedly allowed opponents to sustain long drives. They did not fare well  Matt Mooney Jersey against either the run (22nd in DVOA) or the pa s (26th), and they did not get a push in the run game (22nd in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards) or in the pa s rush (25th in pre sure rate). Worse yet, they were the worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert 71.4 percent of red zone chances into touchdowns.The Texans defense we see on the field Saturday is going to look somewhat different than the one that has been on the field for the past several weeks, for one big reason: J.J. Watt is coming back. Watt has been out since Week 8, recovering from surgery to repair a torn left pectoral muscle. Though he is not the utterly unstoppable force he once was, Watt is still the defense's best player, and one who needs to be accounted for on an every-snap basis. The middle of the Buffalo offensive line will have its hands full with Watt on the inside. Center and guards and form a solid group up the middle, but Watt is capable of wrecking any linemen when he's on his game.Watt, , D.J. Reader, and the rest of the defensive front will be tasked with getting enough pre sure on Allen to force him into mistakes (Allen had a 60.5 pa ser rating under pre sure this season, per Pro Football Focus, compared to a 95.2 mark when throwing from a clean pocket), and with slowing down Singletary and Gore enough to force the Bills to put the game in Allen's hands. The Texans showed a particular weakne s against runs right  LeBron James Jersey up the middle this season, allowing 4.63 yards per carry on those plays, per Football Outsiders. That's where Buffalo had its most succe s in the run game, with Singletary and Gore able to slice through the middle of defenses concerned at times with not allowing Allen to use his athleticism to get outside.The way most teams tried to beat the Texans this season was throwing early and often at their eminently burnable cornerbacks. and Jonathan Joseph had solid seasons, but defenses found it extraordinarily easy to attack second-round pick Lonnie Johnson (128.9 pa ser rating allowed, per PFF), trade acquisition (104.2, though he was better in Houston than Oakland), and waiver-wire signee Vernon Hargreaves III (131.5 in six games). Given the alignment trends for each team, we'll likely see a lot of Hargreaves and Beasley working against each other in the slot, while Conley and Joseph get the primary a signments against Brown, , and on the outside. The slot matchup -- in particular -- is one to watch because if Beasley can win quickly off the line, it will allow Allen high-percentage throws that have a small chance of being turned into takeaways, allowing the Bills to march their way down the field while burning clock at the same time.The Texans will also have to be wary of allowing Allen to escape the pocket and make plays on the run. Houston allowed 240 yards on quarterback scrambles this season, according to Sports Info Solutions, third-most in the NFL. Allen scrambled 46 times for 330 yards, 19 first downs, and three touchdowns, making him one of the most dangerous scramblers in the league.When the Texans have the ballThe marquee matchup on this side of the ball is unquestionably vs. , but we'll get to that in a minute because unle s Will Fuller is healthy enough to suit up, it might not matter. Here's what we wrote after the Texans' Week 15 victory over the :"This was the 21st game of career that he  Dylan Windler Jersey playedwithWill Fuller in the lineup. In those 21 games, Watson is 447 of 668 (66.9 percent) for 5,898 yards (8.83 per attempt), 50 touchdowns, 19 interceptions, and a 107.7 pa ser rating. In the 16 games he's played without Fuller, Watson is 338 of 504 (67.1 percent) for 3,634 yards (7.21 per attempt), 21 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a 94.5 pa ser rating. It's safe to